What Happens When the Lease Expires?

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Featured Article

When investors buy single-tenant net lease (STNL) real estate, the focus is usually on one thing: the current income stream. Long lease term. Strong tenant. Predictable cash flow.

But every lease—no matter how long—eventually expires.

And the biggest difference between average and sophisticated STNL investors is not how they buy deals, but how far ahead they think about the exit and renewal risk.

Here’s how smart investors underwrite “what happens next” before they ever close.

🕒 Lease Expiration Is Not a Problem—If You Plan for It

A lease expiration doesn’t automatically mean vacancy or value loss. In fact, many of the best-performing STNL deals are those where investors correctly anticipate renewal behavior and future rent dynamics.

The risk arises when buyers assume:

• “The tenant will obviously renew”

• “Someone else will always lease it”

• “The real estate doesn’t matter because the lease is long”

Those assumptions are where investors get hurt.

🔍 Step 1: Understand the Tenant’s Renewal Incentives

Before underwriting a lease expiration, ask one key question:

Is this location critical to the tenant’s business?

Indicators of high renewal probability:

• Strong unit-level sales

• High buildout or specialized improvements

• Limited nearby replacement sites

• Strong trade area demographics

• Long operating history at the location

Tenants rarely walk away from profitable, irreplaceable stores—especially when relocation costs exceed renewal economics.

🧾 Step 2: Analyze the Rent vs. Market Reality

A common mistake is assuming today’s rent will always be market rent.

You should know:

• Is the rent above, at, or below market?

• Would a renewal require a rent reset?

• Could the space be re-leased at similar terms?

Ironically, below-market rents often increase renewal probability, while above-market rents may require concessions or restructuring.

🏗️ Step 3: Evaluate the Real Estate Without the Tenant

At lease expiration, the lease goes away—but the dirt remains.

Smart investors underwrite:

• Alternative uses for the site

• Zoning flexibility

• Building adaptability

• Visibility, access, and traffic

• Redevelopment potential

The strongest STNL investments are those where the real estate still works even if the tenant leaves.

🔄 Step 4: Know the Difference Between Renewal Risk and Re-Tenanting Risk

Renewal risk focuses on whether the current tenant stays.
Re-tenanting risk focuses on whether someone else will pay similar rent.

If both risks are low, you have a resilient asset.
If both risks are high, you’re holding a bond with a ticking clock.

📉 Why This Matters for Value

As lease term shortens:

• Buyer pool shrinks

• Cap rates expand

• Financing becomes more restrictive

However, investors who understand renewal dynamics can often:

• Buy assets at higher cap rates

• Capture value through early renewals

• Exit at compressed pricing once risk is removed

This is where experience and underwriting discipline create outsized returns.

🧠 The Best STNL Investors Think Beyond the Lease

Long-term success in STNL investing isn’t about buying the longest lease—it’s about buying the right lease on the right real estate with the right tenant.

Lease expiration is inevitable. Value erosion is not.

Final Thought

If you’re evaluating an STNL acquisition—or currently own one with a lease term winding down—the most important question is not “How much time is left?”

It’s “What happens after?”

If you want help evaluating renewal risk, exit timing, or re-tenanting scenarios, reply to this email. I’m happy to walk through the analysis with you.

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