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- 📊 What the Latest CoStar Report Tells Us About Net Lease Retail
📊 What the Latest CoStar Report Tells Us About Net Lease Retail
CoStar just dropped their latest market update, and if you’re in the net lease retail space, there’s a lot to unpack.
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📊 What the Latest CoStar Report Tells Us About Net Lease Retail
CoStar just dropped their latest market update, and if you’re in the net lease retail space, there’s a lot to unpack.
While the headlines are all about office vacancies and multifamily deliveries, the net lease retail sector continues to quietly prove its resilience—and even show signs of strength in places most aren’t watching.
Let’s dig into the key takeaways—and what they actually mean for investors.
🧱 🏪 Single Tenant Retail: Holding Strong
According to CoStar’s data:
Vacancy for single-tenant retail remains near historic lows, hovering between 3.8–4.2% nationally
Rents continue to inch upward, with year-over-year growth in the 2.5–4% range, depending on the market
New construction starts are down, which limits future supply—a bullish sign for landlords
Translation?
Even as consumer behavior shifts and economic uncertainty lingers, credit tenants in solid locations are sticking around—and paying more.
💵 Cap Rates Are Flattening—But Not Crashing
Cap rates for net lease retail have crept up slightly—mostly due to the rising interest rate environment—but they’re not blowing out like some feared:
Q1 average cap for national STNL retail: 6.10%
Q1 2023 average cap: 5.80%
Delta: +30 bps year-over-year
What’s more interesting is the spread between tenant types:
Corporate tenants: 5.5%–6.0%
Franchisee or private credit: 6.5%–7.25%
Tertiary market deals with short lease terms: pushing 8%+
Flight to quality is real—and it's showing up in pricing.
📍 Secondary Markets Are Quietly Winning
CoStar reports elevated investor activity in select secondary and tertiary markets—especially in the Southeast, Midwest, and Mountain West regions.
Why?
Better pricing
More favorable tax environments
Lower competition from institutional buyers
Investors are waking up to the idea that a Taco Bell in Alabama with a 15-year corporate lease may outperform a Walgreens in Chicago with 3 years left.
🔎 Lease Structure Is Under the Microscope
More than ever, investors are zeroing in on lease details—especially:
Who covers roof, structure, HVAC?
Are there hidden landlord responsibilities?
What’s the actual NOI, after reserves?
The CoStar data hints at a more discerning buyer pool, with smart money demanding transparency and clean lease terms. It’s no longer just about the brand on the sign—it’s about the real estate and the risk behind it.
đź§ Bottom Line
The net lease retail sector is not immune to macro pressure, but it’s proving to be durable, cash-flowing, and stable—especially when compared to other commercial asset classes.
CoStar’s report confirms what many of us are seeing in real time:
Net lease retail is becoming a safe haven for yield-hungry investors who want simplicity and predictability.
Now is a good time to re-evaluate your deal criteria. The opportunities are still there—you just have to know where to look (and what to avoid).
Want help breaking down the numbers on your next STNL deal?
Let’s connect. We live and breathe this space.
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